La plus grande source d'énergie primaire, le charbon

[moinsdewatt]

La demande de charbon de la Chine commencera à baisser à partir de 2025 (rapport)

Agence Ecofin. 23 août 2019

Selon un rapport de CNPC, un think tank appartenant à l’Etat chinois, la demande de charbon de l’empire du Milieu atteindra son pic en 2025 avant de commencer par baisser. La firme de recherche prévoit une baisse de 18% de la consommation totale du pays entre 2018 et 2035 et de 39% entre 2018 et 2050.

« Avec la baisse progressive de la demande de charbon en Chine, la consommation mondiale de charbon devrait atteindre un pic d'ici 10 ans. Entre-temps, la demande de charbon de la Chine, qui représente actuellement la moitié du total mondial, tombera à environ 35 %, d'ici 2050 », indique le rapport selon des détails relayés par Reuters.

Malgré sa stratégie visant à réduire sa consommation de charbon et le remplacer par une énergie plus propre comme le gaz naturel et les énergies renouvelables, l’empire du Milieu a continué d’approuver le développement de nouvelles mines et centrales électriques au charbon. Bien que la part du charbon dans son mix énergétique soit tombée à 59% l’année passée (contre 68,5% en 2012), la consommation globale a augmenté de 3% à 3,82 milliards de tonnes en glissement annuel.

Toutefois, les chercheurs du CNPC prévoient que la part du charbon dans le mix continue sur sa pente descendante en chutant à 40,5% d’ici 2035. En effet, expliquent-ils, la capacité de production d'énergie renouvelable, nucléaire et de gaz naturel du pays continue à augmenter rapidement.

La Chine est le plus grand consommateur mondial de charbon et le plus grand émetteur de gaz à effet de serre.

https://www.agenceecofin.com/charbon/23 ... 25-rapport

[moinsdewatt]

Les Chinois ont construit une longue liaison ferroviaire à 30 milliards de dollars pour transporter le charbon du des provinces du Nord vers le centre. Pour transporter 200 millions de tonnes de charbon par an !

China Railways close to completion on $30bn coal freight line

By DANIEL BRIGHTMORE . Sep 23, 2019,

China Railways is close to completing the world’s longest heavy freight line to haul coal from China’s northern mines to its eastern and central provinces.

Almost a decade in the making, the nearly $30bn Haoji Railway will start around the end of this month and eventually haul as much as 200 million tonnes from key producing regions in the north to consumers in the south, reports Bloomberg.

That’s more than Japan uses in a year and could cut China’s domestic seaborne coal trade by 10% in the long run, Fenwei Energy Information Services Co. forecasts.

“Coal will remain a dominant source of power in the next 10 years, even though it’s being gradually replaced by new energy,” said Tian Miao, an analyst at Everbright Sun Hung Kai Co. in Beijing.

One of the main reasons for building the nearly 2,000km (1,243-mile) long railway is to ease transportation bottlenecks in the domestic supply chain. China is rich in coal - with its resource concentrated in the northern provinces of Inner Mongolia, Shanxi and Shaanxi - but the distribution is uneven.

https://www.constructionglobal.com/infr ... eight-line

Le coût paraît élevé, mais en 25 ans ils vont transporter 5 milliards de tonnes, ce qui représente 6 Dollars d'investissement par tonne transportée. Ça le fait.

[moinsdewatt]

L'IEA prévoit une quasi stagnation de la demande en charbon jusqu'en 2023.

Coal demand will remain steady through 2023, International Energy Agency says

Posted by SDD Contributor on November 22, 2019

Coal consumption is expanding after two years of decline, but miners should brace for another period of sluggish growth, according to the International Energy Agency.

In its latest annual report, the IEA forecasts global coal demand will remain essentially stable over the next five years, inching up by just over 1 percent between 2017 and 2023. The reason for coal‘s stagnation remains unchanged from recent years: Developed nations are ditching the fossil fuel, while India and other emerging economies are turning to coal to quickly scale up electric power generation.

“In a growing number of countries, the elimination of coal-fired generation is a key climate policy goal. In others, coal remains the preferred source of electricity and is seen as abundant and affordable,” said the IEA, a Paris-based agency that advises developed nations on energy policy.

The IEA‘s forecast comes on the heels of a series of reports that the world is falling short of commitments to prevent catastrophic impacts from climate change and running out of time to take action. Burning coal for electric power and industrial purposes such as steelmaking is a major contributor to global warming.

https://stockdailydish.com/coal-demand- ... ency-says/

[moinsdewatt]

Le marché international du charbon en baisse de volumes selon Moody et L'EIA.

US thermal, met coal outlook negative on weak pricing and dropping demand: Moody’s

in Commodity News 24/01/2020

Moody’s Investor Services issued a negative outlook for US coal markets, driven by weak coal pricing in thermal and met markets, in addition to dropping domestic and export demand.

“Coal pricing remains weak in early 2020, with no clear catalyst for improvement during the year after export thermal coal prices fell sharply in 2019,” Benjamin Nelson, lead analyst, wrote. “Coal producers, which increased thermal coal exports significantly in 2017 and 2018, responded by attempting to place more volumes in the domestic market, which depressed thermal coal pricing.”

According to Moody’s, while pricing for met coal looks more favorable than thermal, the met market is also likely to be weak in 2020, adding more constraints to cash flow and EBITDA generation.

“There is a greater risk for the High-Vol A market, where proceeding with recently-announced projects could worsen the effects of price weakness,” the report said. “We expect some projects will be delayed.”

PROJECTED DEMAND
Moody’s projects coal demand will drop to 550 million st this year, the lowest level since early 1970s. The US Energy Information Administration, it noted, also forecast coal demand to drop 14% to 597 million st in 2020.

“Domestic thermal coal volumes face an environment of contracting demand from coal-fired power plants, which account for most demand, cutting consumption by more than half over the last decade,” Moody’s said. “Weak export pricing makes it uneconomical to export a significant percentage of the coal that producers have exported previously, leading to a meaningful decline in exports in 2019 that will intensify in 2020.”
........

https://www.hellenicshippingnews.com/us ... nd-moodys/

[moinsdewatt]

Les tazus avaient produit 2016 TWh d'électricité à partir de charbon en 2007.
C'est tombé à moins de la moitié à 966 TWh en 2019 !

U.S. Coal-Fired Power Plants Just Had Their Worst Year Since the 1970s
Natural gas, nuclear, wind, and solar sources had their best years of electrical output ever.

Feb 29, 2020

In 2007, the U.S. generated a record amount of electricity from coal-fired power plants at an estimated 2,016 terawatt-hours, according to data compiled by the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA). Last year, the nation's fleet generated an estimated 966 terawatt-hours. That's less than half the all-time peak from just 12 years ago and the lowest output since the late 1970s.

The overnight abandonment of coal-fired power plants has created an opportunity for other power sources to gain market share while decarbonizing the country's power sector. In 2019, the United States generated record amounts of electricity from each natural gas, nuclear, wind, and solar.

Here's what the latest numbers from the country's ongoing energy transition mean for investors.

........

Lire https://www.fool.com/investing/2020/02/ ... st-ye.aspx

[bardal]

Ce n'est pas une mauvaise nouvelle !

La seule chose qui me chagrine, c'est que Trump va du coup apparaître comme le champion de la lutte contre les émissions de GES… Un peu fort quand même...

[moinsdewatt]

Fermeture de la dernière centrale thermique à charbon de l' état de New York, 675 MW de puissance, le 31 mars 2020.
Elle fonctionnait depuis 1983.

New York's last coal-burning power plant closes on Lake Ontario shore

By Thomas J. Prohaska




New York State's coal-burning era will end Tuesday, when Somerset Operating Co. officially retires its power plant on the shore of Lake Ontario in Niagara County.

It means the share of the state's power generation coming from coal will fall to zero.

"We were the last coal-fired plant in New York State," plant manager Brian Gregson said Monday.

The 675-megawatt plant, opened by New York State Electric & Gas Corp. in 1983, last generated electricity on March 13, when it burned off the last of its coal. The process ended at 12:02 a.m. March 14.

The plant sat idle more than it ran in recent years. It has been at least five years since the plant operated without interruption for as long as a month, Gregson said.
..............

https://buffalonews.com/2020/03/30/new- ... e-ontario/

Bon, en ce moment avec covid19 c'est pas ça qui fera les titres des journaux.

[moinsdewatt]

La production mondiale de charbon pourrait croître de un demi pour cent en 2020. Malgré le Covid19.
Très légère baisse en Chine, forte hausse en Inde.

Coal Production On The Rise Despite Coronavirus Crisis

Global coal production is expected to grow only marginally in 2020, from 8.13 billion tonnes in 2019 to 8.17 billion tonnes in 2020, a growth of only 0.5 percent after three consecutive yearly increases, due to the disruptions caused by the coronavirus pandemic, says GlobalData. The spreading coronavirus pandemic may too heavy of a burden for the already struggling coal miners in the United States, with three companies announcing operations halts due to measures to contain the spread of the disease.

Now, according to the analytics company, disruption has been most significant in China. Coal production declined by around 6 percent in the first two months of 2020 as workers could not return to mine sites due to the coronavirus outbreak.

However, by March 4, 83 percent of China’s coal mining capacity was operational and production is now expected to recover over the remainder of 2020 with a forecast decline of only 1.2 percent expected by the year-end.

Thermal coal production is expected to grow by 0.5 percent to 7.05 billion tonnes, while metallurgical coal production is forecast to be flat at 1.1 billion tonnes.

Over the next four years, the production of thermal coal is expected to grow at a compound annual rate of 1.9 percent to reach 7.6 billion tonnes by 2023, due to increasing demand from India and China.

“Across the globe, compared with other commodities coal production is only expected to be marginally affected by the impact of the coronavirus as thermal coal mines are permitted to operate during lockdowns as they are deemed essential to maintain power supplies,” says Vinneth Bajaj, senior mining analyst at GlobalData.


China’s overall annual coal consumption is expected to decline by 0.5 percent, due to the lockdown of industrial areas with thermal coal consumption falling by around 0.3 percent in 2020.

Through to 1 March 2020, Chinese coal-fired power plants reported a 3 percent decline in their coal consumption, with an 8 percent decline in the country’s power generation during the first two months of 2020.

In India, around 845 million tonnes of coal is expected to be produced in 2020 – an 8.3 percent increase compared to 2019.

Elsewhere, thermal coal mines in South Africa have been permitted to operate despite the country’s 21-day lockdown.

“Longer term, whilst power demand is growing, we will see coal declining as a proportion of the power generated. At present, 67 percent and 75 percent of the electricity in China and India is generated from coal,” Vinneth adds.

“However, both counties have environmental commitments to reduce carbon emissions, and have targeted to reduce these shares to 58.5 percent and 50 percent by 2030 respectively.”

https://oilprice.com/Energy/Coal/Coal-P ... risis.html

[sicetaitsimple]

La production mondiale de charbon pourrait croître de un demi pour cent en 2020. Malgré le Covid19.
Très légère baisse en Chine, forte hausse en Inde.l

Je ne n'y crois vraiment qu'assez peu et même pas du tout. Ce sera plus que vraisemblablement un recul sensible. La Chine même si elle repart aujourd'hui ne va pas retrouver tous ses clients immédiatement, et l'Inde est à mon avis, même si déjà confinée,à la veille d'une explosion majeure de cas et par conséquence une baisse de l'activité économique. J'espère me tromper, mais bon....On verra
Par ailleurs, du coté les pays importateurs de charbon, notamment en Europe, là ça va être vraiment une dégringolade sévère.

[moinsdewatt]

L'Autriche arrête sa dernière centrale à charbon

AFP parue le 17 avr. 2020

L'Autriche a fermé vendredi, comme prévu, sa dernière centrale à charbon, une étape symbolique pour le pays qui vise à produire 100% d'électricité d'origine renouvelable d'ici 2030.

La centrale thermique située dans le sud du pays, à Mellach, alimentait depuis la fin des années 1980 le réseau de chauffage urbain de la ville voisine de Graz. Son exploitant, le groupe Verbund, principal fournisseur d'électricité du pays, a salué la fin de "l'ère de la production d'électricité carbonée en Autriche". La ministre de la Protection du climat, Leonore Gewessler (Verts), a salué "une nouvelle étape vers l'élimination progressive des énergies fossiles", l'association de défense de l'environnement Global 2000 parlant d'un "jour historique".

Les autres centrales thermiques du pays ont fermé au fil des quinze dernières années. La part de la centrale de Mellach dans le mix autrichien était marginale alors que l'électricité produite dans le pays est aux trois quarts d'origine renouvelable, principalement issue de l'hydraulique et de la biomasse. La volonté du gouvernement de coalition entre les conservateurs et les Verts est d'arriver à une production d'électricité 100% verte d'ici 2030, un objectif déjà inscrit dans le plan climat des précédents gouvernements.

La coalition au pouvoir s'est fixé l'objectif plus ambitieux de décarboner complètement l'économie nationale à l'horizon 2040. À cette date, tous les approvisionnements devront être d'origine renouvelable, contre 33% actuellement, l'Autriche consommant quelque 67% de combustibles fossiles principalement issus de l'importation (charbon 8,3%, pétrole 35,6%, gaz naturel 22,4%).

https://www.connaissancedesenergies.org ... bon-200417