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Clean Disruption of Energy and Transportation: How Silicon Valley Will Make Oil, Nuclear, Natural Gas, Coal, Electric Utilities and Conventional Cars Obsolete by 2030 Paperback – May 20, 2014

4.4 out of 5 stars 641 ratings

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The industrial age of energy and transportation will be over by 2030. Maybe before. Exponentially improving technologies such as solar, electric vehicles, and autonomous (self-driving) cars will disrupt and sweep away the energy and transportation industries as we know it. The Stone Age did not end because we ran out of rocks. It ended because a disruptive technology ushered in the Bronze Age. The era of centralized, command-and-control, extraction-resource-based energy sources (oil, gas, coal and nuclear) will not end because we run out of petroleum, natural gas, coal, or uranium. It will end because these energy sources, the business models they employ, and the products that sustain them will be disrupted by superior technologies, product architectures, and business models. The same Silicon Valley ecosystem that created bit-based technologies that have disrupted atom-based industries is now creating bit- and electron-based technologies that will disrupt atom-based energy industries. This is a technology-based disruption reminiscent of how the cell phone, Internet, and personal computer swept away industries such as landline telephony, publishing, and mainframe computers. Just like those technology disruptions flipped the architecture of information and brought abundant, cheap and participatory information, the clean disruption will flip the architecture of energy and bring abundant, cheap and participatory energy. Just like those previous technology disruptions, the clean disruption is inevitable and will be swift. The industrial age of energy and transportation is already giving way to an information technology and knowledge-based energy and transportation era.
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  • Publisher ‏ : ‎ Tony Seba
  • Publication date ‏ : ‎ May 20, 2014
  • Edition ‏ : ‎ Beta
  • Language ‏ : ‎ English
  • Print length ‏ : ‎ 290 pages
  • ISBN-10 ‏ : ‎ 0692210539
  • ISBN-13 ‏ : ‎ 978-0692210536
  • Item Weight ‏ : ‎ 13.8 ounces
  • Dimensions ‏ : ‎ 6 x 0.66 x 9 inches
  • Customer Reviews:
    4.4 out of 5 stars 641 ratings

About the author

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Tony Seba
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Tony Seba is a world-renowned thought leader, author, speaker, educator, and serial Silicon Valley entrepreneur.

Seba is the author of the #1 Amazon best-selling book “Clean Disruption of Energy and Transportation”, “Solar Trillions" and "Winners Take All", and co-author of "Rethinking Transportation 2020-2030” and "Rethinking Food and Agriculture 2020-2030".

Seba is a co-founder of RethinkX, a think tank that analyzes technology disruption and its implications for society. He is the award-winning creator of the Seba Technology Disruption Framework™. His work focuses on technology disruption, the convergence of technologies, business model innovation, and product innovations that are leading to the disruption of some of the world’s major industries, such as energy, transportation, food, agriculture, infrastructure, real estate, health care, finance, and more.

Seba has been a keynote speaker at hundreds of global events and organizations including Google, the European Commission, Davos, COP21, Intersolar, World Bank / IFC, IDB, CLSA, J.P. Morgan, Nomura, MIT Energy Conference, and Global Leaders Forum. Video of his keynote at the 2018 Conference on World Affairs: https://youtu.be/duWFnukFJhQ

Seba has taught thousands of entrepreneurs and corporate leaders at Stanford Continuing Studies and leading global institutions such as the London Business School and the University of Auckland Business School.

A serial Silicon Valley entrepreneur, Seba was an early employee at Internet powerhouse Cisco Systems and RSA Data Security where he managed strategic planning and business development.

Tony Seba holds an M.B.A. from Stanford University Graduate School of Business and a B.S. in Computer Science and Engineering from the Massachusetts Institute of Technology.

Customer reviews

4.4 out of 5 stars
641 global ratings

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Customers say

Customers find the book to be a well-researched and persuasive treatise, with one customer describing it as a brilliant analysis of the near future. Moreover, the solar energy aspect receives positive feedback, with customers noting that solar is the most economical energy source and powers their houses. However, the writing style receives mixed reactions, with some finding it well written while others say it's not an easy read. Additionally, the material quality and formatting receive positive feedback, though one customer mentions issues with Kindle formatting.

57 customers mention "Readability"57 positive0 negative

Customers find the book highly readable, describing it as an excellent must-read with fascinating content, and one customer notes it is to the point.

"Great book, but it now is outdated. I'd like to see an addendum." Read more

"Excellent and informative but it would be helpful if the author would bring out a new edition based upon 2016 figures...." Read more

"Excellent read and thought provoking with source materials to back up the statements...." Read more

"...However it is a great read and recommend it." Read more

18 customers mention "Solar energy"18 positive0 negative

Customers appreciate the book's coverage of solar energy, noting that it is the most economical energy source and powers their houses, with one customer highlighting that solar generation facilities produce zero emissions.

"...by itself, could provide absolutely the quickest path to a sustainable solution. TOU rates should even be allowed to go negative if needed...." Read more

"This is a great book about the future of solar and EV's. I wish I had bought it when it was first published. It is still relevant today." Read more

"...The author's quantitative analyses and his immoderate enthusiasm for solar is the perfect combination of passion and rigor...." Read more

"...It was made abundantly clear that solar generation facilities generate zero emissions, but to be fair one should at least mention any upstream..." Read more

4 customers mention "Material quality"4 positive0 negative

Customers appreciate the material quality of the book, with one customer noting its rigorous approach and another highlighting its solid case for rapid changes.

"The material is very interesting and positive. But the chapters are often repetitive ans seem to have been written alone." Read more

"Strong on the messsge, weak on the writing." Read more

"Terrific book - both rigorous and passionate..." Read more

"Solid Case for Rapid Changes..." Read more

29 customers mention "Writing style"12 positive17 negative

Customers have mixed opinions about the writing style of the book, with some finding it well written while others say it's not well written and not an easy read.

"...It is let down by the poor editing, and repetition, which suggests Mr Seba kind of rushed the writing." Read more

"...Mr Seba shows us a big slice of our future, clearly and compellingly, and it's all the better because so few people grasp yet that he's correct...." Read more

"...2. The copy editing is also awful. Misspellings, wrong word choices, often even entire missing words, or phrases that amount to gibberish...." Read more

"...Tony's writing is refreshing, clear and concise; I highly recommend Tony's book, Clean Disruption, to everyone and all their extended family and..." Read more

3 customers mention "Formatting"0 positive3 negative

Customers criticize the book's formatting, with multiple reviews mentioning issues with Kindle formatting, editing errors, and poor copy editing.

"...And, the book is full of editing errors -- and that is an opportunity for group resolution if we could find a mechanism to do it." Read more

"...2. The copy editing is also awful. Misspellings, wrong word choices, often even entire missing words, or phrases that amount to gibberish...." Read more

"I bought the kindle version and it was full of formatting errors. Graphics that did not scale. Repeated texts. Shame!..." Read more

Top reviews from the United States

  • Reviewed in the United States on March 15, 2016
    Format: KindleVerified Purchase
    I am the CEO and founder of Heart Transverter (...) and have been very actively involved in the very processes you so eloquently describe in your book. I started as a nuclear physicist but, as my eyes opened a little wider, realized the ultimate non-sustainable and very dangerous aspects inherent to nuclear energy and switched fields and ended up creating the inverter market. By the late seventies I was 100% in line with the conclusions of your book and have worked since to help them unfold as gracefully as possible. Some of the technical concepts I lay out here could be viewed as mere details of your premise but they actually are essential to the core concepts.

    In order for Solar Energy to be significant, from an ecological point of view, it has to be scalable and in its present form it can't really scale past about 15%. In order to be scalable it has to integrate energy storage and monitor and control all major loads in the home or business. The Transverter technology was designed to do just that. Read The Solarized Grid and watch Heart Transverter: OSIsoft Presentation for High-density Solar Integration on the Distribution Grid.

    When I created the inverter market by founding companies that are now owned by Schneider we realized transitioning to clean sustainable energy would be a long and complex path and grid tied residential solar did perform a critical step in that it demonstrated some scale and got the prices of solar down. Things really are evolving quickly in the Utility and Distributed Generation spaces. You are, of course, used to the mushrooming opportunity being addressed by many players Beyond Sprawl: A New Vision of the Future. Problem is this is causing enormous problems for the Utility companies and these problems are based on hard science and engineering, not just the utility's fear of losing market share. All you have to do is look into high solar integration areas, like San Diego SDG&E disrupts power to 115,000 to avoid wider blackouts. This is an interaction between CAISO and SDG&E and it is driven by the increasing need for spinning reserves caused by intermittent renewable sources, like solar, and increasing percentages of electronic loads. The Hawaiian solar market is in turmoil from this as is the German market. See Hawaii PUC chair defends landmark decision to end retail rate net metering. The economics of the different areas differ but the science is the same and the problem will only increase with more solar penetration. Private sector PPA's like Solar City & Vivint are used to competition but there is a new type of competitor emerging, the Utility company itself Big utilities enter market for small rooftop solar. The Utility companies understand the science behind these problems and value the solutions and can streamline integrating the benefits of ultra smart solar. The Utility, viewed as a competitor to PPA's, has the potential of having the upper hand as they can influence standards, laws and regulations as you have already seen in Hawaii, California, Nevada Louisiana and even Maine. Maine Utility Wants to End 'Net Metering' Policy. Rules, laws and regulations are always changing. If your effect is creating or magnifying problems then they will probably change against you. This can be seen with net metering being used by some to 100% offset the grid meaning that the grid has no revenue stream even though they still need to provide night time generation and an entire stabilizing grid structure and this drives things like Solar battle is on in the last state you'd expect. If you are solving the problems and, of course, waving your flag, then it is reasonable to expect the rules, laws and regulations to change to your benefit. This is already impacting the large PPA's SolarCity Inevitable Downward Spiral Has Begun and we are actively involved with presenting a solution through the mess that has been created. This rapid solarization has run into a brick wall as is evidenced by Sun Edison's difficulty with trying to acquire Vivint SunEdison's Troubles Are Far From Over and this is all with electric vehicles just starting to become significant. It is becoming clear that TOU (Time Of Use) rates being adjusted often with bi-directional energy flow being encouraged is not only interesting, but probably the only viable solution. This paves the way for EV batteries becoming the dominant energy storage asset for the utility, the home and the microgrid.

    Time Of Use rates should be implemented everywhere (worldwide) with the rates adjusted at least once a month and everyone should be encouraged to use them in both directions. This is like giving everyone Net Metering coupled with TOU with no limits. This, by itself, could provide absolutely the quickest path to a sustainable solution. TOU rates should even be allowed to go negative if needed. This would provide the needed investment to solve the energy storage issue and would automatically always be a good deal for everyone, the utility company, the truck driver, the home owner, etc. As the technology matures and sustainability approaches, the rates would always adjust to the new environment. For example, high integration solar would dominate the TOU rates (like has already happened in Hawaii) where the lowest rates would be in the middle of the day when people were at work and the highest rates in the early evening. Their EV's in the work place parking lot would be storing the cheap solar energy into their batteries and, in the evening, these EV's would be parked at their home and would make this same stored energy available. TOU rates would make it profitable.
    4 people found this helpful
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  • Reviewed in the United States on August 11, 2015
    Format: KindleVerified Purchase
    Tony Seba does a great job of proving that solar energy is on the verge of disrupting fossil fuels. The trends are very clear, and expected to continue (and this ignores the potential for unpredictable 'quantum leaps' in value improvement).
    The Energy component of the book would be even better by going deeper into educating readers on the key value measures of EROI, storage problems (high cost / slow progress in battery tech) and solutions (hydro-electric water pumping to higher elevations), and transmission issues (superconductive cables, and ET3 energy transport/storage). Water and fracking issues are one sided (or poorly researched). This (political??) bias could alienate many readers that would benefit from the otherwise excellent data. For instance over 80% of the water used to frack a well is recovered and used to frack more wells. Also the aquifer exhaustion issues are based on research and extrapolation over a short term ignoring longer term cycles noted in other research. The book fails to point out there is an abundance of fresh water, so water is really a transportation issue - (solvable by technology like ET3) - OR and energy issue (solvable by desal using renewable energy). Another energy omission is the very high value (high benefit/low cost) of hydroelectric energy.
    The transportation parts aptly points out trends in electric and automated cars, but is ignorant to the much greater value potential of automated PRT technologies like ET3 (Evacuated Tube Transport Technology) that offer 5 to 50 times greater energy efficiency.
    This review focuses on some of the areas for improvement, and ignores the reason it earned 4 stars -- this is a land mark book aptly showing how our global standard of living is going to improve - and it is going to happen even faster than Tony's book predicts!
  • Reviewed in the United States on February 10, 2015
    Format: KindleVerified Purchase
    My favorite book on renewable energy by a substantial margin. Tony puts a lot of faith in the market, but he meticulously explains why solar and wind are more competitive than fossil fuels. His explanation does not rely on valuing externalities, something that should be done but is unlikely to happen soon enough to make a difference. He relies solely on sober if optimistic projections about the price and quality improvements we can expect in solar energy, EVs, and autonomous vehicles. Having lived through the disruption of the mainframe market as a professional who advocated open systems and smaller computers to my customers and employers, I think chances are good that his projections for the triumph of solar and EVs will be largely realized. Modularity is the key behind his projections for solar. It works for autonomous vehicles also. This is one book about the future that doesn't shove climate change under a rug but gives a real ray of hope. Be sure to watch the Tony Seba videos on Youtube and Tony's website. One topic that he doesn't deal with is the intermittency of solar and wind. For clear discussions of that topic see Mark Jacobson and Amory Lovins. It is an issue but certainly one that can be overcome. Finally, the tables and charts are almost unreadable. I haven't checked Tony's website yet to see if they are available there. And, the book is full of editing errors -- and that is an opportunity for group resolution if we could find a mechanism to do it.
    One person found this helpful
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  • Reviewed in the United States on August 16, 2024
    Format: PaperbackVerified Purchase
    This is a great book about the future of solar and EV's. I wish I had bought it when it was first published. It is still relevant today.

Top reviews from other countries

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  • Paolo
    5.0 out of 5 stars Prophetic!
    Reviewed in Italy on January 14, 2024
    Format: PaperbackVerified Purchase
    Written in 2014, read in 2024… most of what was predicted bu the book has become reality. Unfortunately Big Oil still has a strong grip on world politicians. Hope that sheer economics will end oil age soon.
  • Krunal
    5.0 out of 5 stars Great Future Insights...!!
    Reviewed in India on June 20, 2017
    Format: KindleVerified Purchase
    Tony Seba has given great insights of future energy industry. I wanted to buy this book after I listened to the talk by tony seba, I wanted to get the detailed statestics which were covered by him in his talk. This book is a great read for those who want know details about future of energy industry and its market. Tony Seba has all the fact based details of how energy industry is going to get disrupted in near future and how when it is combined with Electric Vehicle will turn out to be deadly for oil and allied indutries... Read on...!
  • Jeremy Oates
    5.0 out of 5 stars Insightful analysis
    Reviewed in the United Kingdom on February 15, 2020
    Format: KindleVerified Purchase
    Good book that while now a little dated has stood the test of time. Easy to read and very clear in hypothesis and conclusion
  • A.M.
    5.0 out of 5 stars Great, inspiring
    Reviewed in Germany on October 30, 2024
    Format: PaperbackVerified Purchase
    A look into the future
  • Javier Sánchez-Bonilla
    5.0 out of 5 stars Muy interesante pero demasiado parcial
    Reviewed in Spain on April 6, 2016
    Format: KindleVerified Purchase
    Altamente recomendable para los que quieran tener una visión optimista y amplia del potencial de las nuevas tecnologías "limpias".

    Muy buen libro para conocer el verdadero potencial de la energía fotovoltaica, almacenamiento en baterías, coche eléctrico y coche autónomo, así como su potencial disruptor.

    Tengo una clara objeción al libro: Para llamar al libro "clean" falta una valoración de los costes medio ambientales de la producción de baterías y FV, que no se menciona una sola vez frente a las incontables valoraciones de los problemas medioambientales de otras tecnologías. De algún modo, ésto resta credibilidad a la tesis del autor.
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